Crash - How Long Will It Last

Hutton reveals how those who tried to warn of the impending financial disaster were shouted down, ignored or fired. As a result, the repercussions of the collapse of Lehman Brothers hit an unprepared and vulnerable UK, and left the government frantically trying to prevent a banking collapse from turning the UK into an economic wasteland.

Despite the collapse of Northern Rock a year before, the government, the regulators and the banks had largely ignored the warning signals that more collapses would follow. Hutton looks at the weeks that followed Lehman's collapse: weeks that will go down as some of the most crucial in Britain's economic history.

Nationalising key banks, and then underwriting the banks' bad loans, prevented meltdown, but at a terrible cost that will haunt us for years to come. Dispatches reveals the mistakes that lead to the current crisis and asks: what will it take to lift the UK out of the biggest recession in living memory?

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FX Pro Forex Broker Review

The name FxPro makes it sound like a place that’s reserved for the professionals alone. Contrary to this, both newbies and professionals are being looked out for. A good standpoint for this broker is the fact that customers are able to tweak their leverage from 1:1 to 1:500, in a bid to take advantage of the market’s risk reward. The client has to make up his mind on what risk to take, but this could be reduced by starting off on FxPro demo account. It offers live trading conditions that’s able to aid you determine if you’ll be comfortable investing on FxPro.

Founded in 2006 under the name EuroOrient Securities & Financial services Ltd by a team of dedicated and experienced professionals, and as time passed on, the company changed its name to FxPro Financial Services Ltd and has continued to serve customers across 120 countries. FxPro now prides itself in countries like the United Kingdom, Austria, France, Greece and Russia, where it exhibits a great sense of corporate social responsibility; where local volunteers are frequently employed.

Customers are greeted with eight trading platform on FxPro – don’t let the numbers scare you. You get four of the platforms, designed to suit varying mobile OS, making it quite easy for everyone willing to participate in this market. The desktop trading platform is delivered on the standard MetaTrader 4 platform (and it’s also called the FX Pro Client Terminal), or the FX Pro WebTrader. Based on review and personal experience, we recommend the WebTrader as a more flexible platform for newbies, as you’ll notice the better defined buy/sell buttons and a shying away from charting tools (making it less cumbersome for a beginner in the market).

Spreads on FxPro are clearly outlined and there’s a deliberate effort from this broker to offer competitive spreads. Customers on MT4 stand to benefit from a 0.8 pips on a 1:500 leverage, as well as commission-free trading. ECN traders can likewise benefit from similar spread with leverage of up to 1:100. Traders on MetaTrader4 stand to benefit from fractional prices as well as the use of expert advisors to generate profitable automated trades.

Advantages of FxPro Forex Broker

1. There is tool-free phone support with support lines that are based in 22 countries.

2. Investors can comfortably adjust their leverage to suit their risk level.

3. Customers can start trading with as little as $500 for currency trading and $1,000 for CFDs.

Disadvantages of FxPro Forex Broker

1. United States citizens are not allowed on FxPro. 2. The use of variable spreads can be a problem, but news traders might find this comfortable.

Conclusion

Howbeit, it is possible to switch between platforms, allowing you trade from any computer, not just the one with the downloadable platform. FxPro has the ability of allowing its customers trade stocks, metals, forex, and futures in one place, this is an added plus. Customers are saddled with very low commissions and in some cases they are totally non-existence. With all of these in focus, FxPro is every traders delight.

Forex.com Broker Review

Forex.com is a reputable forex broker that can handle trading volumes of over 50 forex pairs, making it just that broker that could suit you. Gain Capital is the parent company and is a financial services firm that has been in existence since 1999. Going through the website at Forex.com, you’ll discover that this online trading website was designed by industry veterans.

There are basically, two major trading platforms on Forex.com; the Forex Trader PRO, which is a downloadable client & the Web trader, which allows clients trade directly from their browser, without having to download anything.

Taking a quick tour of the trading platforms, it is clear that the web trader is unique and a bit different from other private label trading platforms. It is a platform that has been carefully knitted for beginners in the market and their preference for compartmentalized news and analysis. On the other hand, the FOREXTraderPRO trading platform is suited for professional traders.

One unique feature of the forex.com platform is the fact that when the platform is not being used for some several minutes, it goes idle. This might sound s bit weird, but it is take by the broker to protect its customer’s security. However, the platform is seen to maintain the same screen that’s seen before the trader left, allowing the trader start off from where the left off.

As a forex dealer, Forex.com makes its money off spread. There are no commissions and as such the brokerage firm keeps its spreads tight, allowing its customers get the vibe quite in time as regards the cost per trade going forward.

At Forex.com you’ll find it without some of the peripheral features that are seen on other brokers. You won’t find the type of interactive trading as seen on eToro, but as an NFA licensed broker, Forex.com is unable to offer the same leverage seen on non-US brokers like AvaFX. At the same time, customers who are gunning for a simple trading experience will find Forex.com an excellent place to do business. Some of the features that I subscribe the most are:

1. - Unique Market Updates. Forex.com has a team of professionals that analyze the market and offer prompt updates that can aid boost the efficiency of your trading. Although this feature can be seen in other brokerages, yet Forex.com offers theirs in a comfortable and comprehendible way.
2. - Forex webinars. Forex.com offers online webinars and this is a valuable source for knowledge that can be more useful than printed forex educational resources.
3. - Trade Automation. You can find this service on ZuluTrade, and it is extremely valuable for customers who are in need of some help.

Advantages of Forex.com Broker

1. Traders would find variable spreads when trading with Forex.com, thus keeping your cost of trading low.

2. There’s an MT4 platform that can be expandable and can be easily customized.

Disadvantages of Forex.com Broker

1. You’ll find spreads that are a bit higher than what is seen in other places.

2. Forex.com is a dealer, and this implies that you’ll be trading against them.

Looking towards the South America

FIRST STEP: RAISING THE DEBT CEILING

The coming week in the United States is going to be full of macroeconomic data and political negotiations on fiscal cliff and debt ceiling, the roof of which will necessarily have to be raised if the U.S. want to avoid the default.

On November 27th, the Shiller index on house prices, durable goods orders, consumer confidence and Beige Book on the state of the economy will start. On November 28th, the sale of new homes, on November 29th the second revision of GDP for the third quarter (previous year 2.8%), and finally on November 30th the trust of the purchasing managers in the district of Chicago.

WAITING FOR THE NEXT RESCUE OF GREECE

On Monday, November 26th Greece will receive the final go-ahead for aids. In Europe, the data concerning business and consumer confidence will be published on November 29th, while the day before, the European Central Bank will inform the market of how much the M3 money supply has increased. Anyway, the main market movers for the Euro zone will still be the German ones concerning inflation and unemployment of November 29th.

EXPORT GOING DOWNWARDS IN JAPAN ... AS JPY

Although the Bank of Japan has not announced last week new measures of liquidity (but promised them anyway), the market looks forward to a political change in the upcoming political elections on December 13th. USD JPY close to 82.4, EUR JPY to 106.7 and most of all NZD JPY above 67.5, close to the indications provided last week that offered a good return for those who opened long positions. The weakness of the Japanese currency was also accentuated by the trade balance in October, which has continued to deteriorate with a fall in the exports of 6.5%.

Retail sales on November 29th are the main and only event in the coming week.

BRIC COUNTRIES

SOUTH AFRICA

After last week's data on interest rates and inflation, South Africa will experience the GDP of the third quarter of 2012 (+1.5% expected) on November 27th, not a secondary factor that might weaken again the Rand, that after touching with precision the support of 8.80 is restarted upward favoring those who have followed our instructions for trading.

BRAZIL

Among the BRIC countries, Brazil is certainly the one that will offer most economic indications able to move the reference currency, the Real in the coming weeks. On November 28th, the Brazilian central bank will decide about interest rates currently at 7.25% and the next the data on inflation will be published.

It is quite interesting how USDBRL will come to this meeting. In fact USD BRL is again close to the highs of 2.10, a level already reached in 2012 twice. The loud reached overbought (daily Rsi above 80 and weekly above 70) makes us think of another primary top. In September 2011 and May 2012, the same conditions facilitated a return of strength for the Real.

Trade short USDBRL at 2.09

Trade short USDBRL at 2.09

TRADE OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK

Long USDZAR: The market has realized a low exactly at 8.80, a level indicated by us as a key support, before restarting definitely upwards. Keep the long on the position on USD ZAR until reaching the target of 9.10 adapting the stop to an input level.

Long NZDJPY: NZD JPY runs over 200 pips above the entry level reported last week. But be careful as we have just walked into the 67.15-69.15 resistance band that, from October 2009 until today, has always prevented the cross to climb further. December is unlikely to be the month of the trend reversal (remember the favorable seasonality), but the correlation with the MSCI World has fallen until 50%, a factor that in the past, as we can see from the graph, has always anticipated the highs.

To confirm our view, we can also quote the recent graphic conformation with three high peaks close to each other that are very similar to those carried out between March and July 2011.

Trade: Between 68 and 69.15 we will go short on NZDJPY

Trade: Between 68 and 69.15 we will go short on NZDJPY

The COT Report and its players part 1

The Cot report is one of the most authoritative sources of information for traders in the forex market which can not rely on an accurate measurement of the traded volume, as the forex is an OTC market (over the counter).

Through the exposures analysis we can monitor the status of the sentiment of a certain currency between the FX market operators.

The report is released weekly each Friday in a free version on the sitehttp://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm and it gives all details on the long / short positioning on the futures market of commercial and non-commercial. There are two versions: a long format and a short format; this last one is enough to perform in-depth analysis on the operators positioning on the market.

A sample of a short format report of Euro Fx on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

As already mentioned, the operators on the futures market are divided between commercial (hedgers), for example the large investment banks operating in the futures market for hedging purposes, and non-commercial (Speculators). The Speculators are subject, such as hedge funds, which operate on the market for speculative purposes.

These two definitions are accompanied by the open interest one. The open interest is the number of derivatives contracts, such as futures and options, not yet closed at a specific point in time. Therefore it can be defined as the sum of all the long and short positions opened in the market in a specific moment.

Larry Williams, a great expert of Cot reports, has clearly defined how the commercials were always on the opposite side of the market trend (so very long near the primary bottoms) because of their function of covering the risks of future currency fluctuations. The chart here below shows exactly this behavior.

In 2010, while EURUSD was rising, the commercials were progressively increasing the short positions on the Euro even up to boast, from September 2010 onwards, a number of short contracts higher than the long ones. The same situation occurred in 2011 when a drop of EURUSD corresponded to an increase in the long positions in the commercials portfolios.

Commercial Euro FX Net Future Position

The non-commercials, instead, are the so-called trend-following speculators: they buy if the price rises and sell when the price falls.

In the following graph we can see clearly the tendency to increase the long positions by the speculators when the slope of the trend becomes bullish.

The GBPUSD rally in 2010 was in fact powered by a progressive increase of GBP long position, as well as the correction of 2011 was seconded by a progressive increase in short positions that exceeded the long ones in the amount already in the middle of the bearish trend.

Non-Commercial GBP Net Position (Long-Short)

Obviously, every trend has an end and the speculators realize this only after its inversion. Is it possible to take advantage of these information coming from the COT Report to our advantage? Is it possible to identify the so-called "extreme" situations when the positive or negative sentiment of a currency is so strong to make very likely the trend reversal? We are going to discuss this subject in the next article.

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The COT Report and its players part 2

As mentioned in the previous article, the tendency of the speculators is to add long positions in a bullish trend (or short in a bearish trend) to create a "bullish / bearish extreme sentiment" situation.

The rules to catch the moments of extreme sentiment are basically three:

• - Speculators and commercials are always on the opposite side of the market;
• - Speculators are almost always on the right side of the market except during the trend reversal, where they are caught unprepared because unbalanced in the same direction;
• - Commercials are always on the wrong side of the market except during the trend reversal when their continuing mediation activity of the price leads to the creation of positions that gradually return to profit;

Let's see some concrete examples concerning how to operate successfully in the Forex with information coming from the Cot FX.

The chart here below shows the net positions of EURUSD held by commercials and non commercials. As we can see, when the differences between the two participants reach extreme values​​, it is likely that this advances the primary reversal points of the market trend.

Commercial and Non-commercial Euro FX Net Position

The next graph shows at the top the weekly bars price concerning EURUSD. In the central part of the graph, in blue, the balance between the weekly long and short positions of the speculators, extracted from the Cot report. The black dotted line that moves between the blue histogram represents the percentage of net long or net short compared to the open interest.

This indicator is far more important than the net balance, since it represents, in percentage terms, how much the speculators are unbalanced from the long or short side compared to the volumes; the higher (if they are net long) or lower (if they are net short) this percentage is, the more the sentiment is excessive and at risk of reversal. Let’s check the last three primary lows of EURUSD, the 2008, 2010 and 2012 ones. The net short positioning has been a common denominator for all three cases, but it is not the same for its value. However, if we connect this absolute net short value of the Euro on the open interest, then we immediately notice that in all three cases, we have fallen below 25%, a first alarm bell that some strong excesses of pessimism were registered on the sentiment side and that the opening of short positions on EURUSD was becoming very dangerous.

EURUSD Long-Short

Here is another recent case. USDMXN has recently experienced a sharp depreciation and this has obviously been accorded with the hedge funds. However in October, the net long reached the absolute top, but most of all, the ratio of this value with the open interest exceeded 60%, a clear excess of positive sentiment in favor of MXN. When the net long and the percentage on the open interest in the past have exceeded well-defined levels (see the horizontal red line), the bottom of the primary market was almost in sight. The beauty of this strategy is that we can also use it in the opposite scenario. USDMXN is in fact a cross for sale when the speculators become simultaneously net short on MXN with a percentage of the open interest lower than -10%.

USDMXN

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Easy Forex Broker Review

Account Types	Mini: min 25 USD, Gold: min 500 USD, Platinum: min 5,000 USD, VIP: min 10,000 USD
Regulated By	NFA, CFTC, CySEC, ASIC, EU CySEC
Leverage	1:50, 1:100, 1:200
Mobile Trading	Yes
Hedging Facilities	Yes
FIFO Rules	Rules applied
Scalping allowed	Yes
Swap free accounts	Yes
PAMM	Yes
Payment Methods	Credit Card, PayPal, MoneyBookers, Wire Transfer
Demo Size	$100,000
Demo Duration	30 days
Platforms	easy-forex® Web Trading, easy-forex® Trade Desk™, easy-forex® MT4, Mobile Trading

Easy-Forex has continued to revolutionize currency trading in more than 150 countries. Founded in 2003, Easy-Forex is a pioneer in designing consumer products in the forex niche, allowing its customers gain from its customized trading technology and personal service that’s tailored to meet the requirements of traders at all levels.

Easy-Forex offers trading account that allows its customers trade currencies and commodities on their web, desktop and mobile platforms. You stand to gain on their one-on-one forex training programs, Dealing Room professionals, paying IB programs and rewarding Partner bonuses just makes multitude of investors choose Easy-Forex broker.

Arguably, Easy-Forex is registered in Australia, EU and the United States, while its offices are spread across the globe, from Sydney to Chicago. However, it offers its customers on its platform proprietary software that adequately supports a no-download platform. Easy-Forex is available in English, Chinese, German, Arabic, Hebrew, Polish and Greek.

Registering on Easy-Forex is simple and quick, while depositing funds onto account is also a stress-free procedure. Deposits into trading accounts can be achieved via the major credit cards, including paypal. There are some hurdles in initiating your first withdrawal; however you’ll be required to speak with the company’s representative over the phone, while presenting them with your proof of identification and a copy of your bank statement. This is done to prevent money laundering related activities.

Getting started on Easy-Forex is quite easy and simple, but a good understanding of the fundamental terminologies of the currency market is vital. On a side note, you’ll find awesome guided tutorials on how to take on the market upon registering with Easy-Forex. Every client is assigned an account manager who will take them through the early stages of trading. Your personal account manager is available during the local business hours, while the dealing room is open 24/7 for free technical help.

Furthermore, when you set up an account with Easy-Forex, you are required to define the account type in relation to your risk acceptance level. If by anyway you decide on starting with a mini-account, you can set your margin to as little at $12.5. Asides the mini-account, investors can take on the market via the Gold, Platinum and a custom made Import-Export account. The account type defines the spread that is offered the customer, and it can range from 10 pips on a mini-account, 7 pips on a gold account, 4.5 pips on a platinum account and 3 pips on a custom made account.

Advantages of Easy-Forex Broker

1. There’s no need for any downloadable software.

2. Live training, plus one-on-one help can be obtained.

Disadvantages of Easy-Forex Broker

1. Spreads are too high.

2. Slow customer care responses, especially when it has to do with email responses.

Conclusion

You’ll always discover Easy-Forex as being simple; this is proudly displayed on their website, as well as a plain appeal experienced on its homepage. A bit more research, shows that every information that’s required by the user is placed around the website in a simply and user-friendly manner.

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Ava Forex Broker Review

Account Types	Silver: min 100 USD, Gold: min 1,000 USD, Platinum: min 10,000 USD, VIP: min 100,000 USD
Regulated By	FSA (Japan), MiFID, CBI
Leverage	200:1 IN Avatrader and 400:1 in MT4 25:1 (Ava Trade Japan)
Mobile Trading	No
Hedging Facilities	No
FIFO Rules	None
Scalping allowed	Yes
Swap free accounts	Yes
PAMM	Yes
Payment Methods	Credit Card, PayPal, MoneyBookers, Neteller, Wire
Demo Size	100,000 USD
Demo Duration	21 days
Platforms	Avatrader, MetaTrader 4, Mirror Trader, Ava Mobile Trading

Ava Group is an international investment firm that owns Ava Capital Markets Ltd, a retail forex arm of the parent company Ava Group. The headquarters of the company is in Ireland, and is regulated by ASIC and the Irish authorities in conformity with MiFiD, the EU’s investment regulations with reference number C53877. The holding firm has its headquarters in the British Virgin Island and AvaFX is a young subsidiary that was formed in 2006.

The main trading platform that AvaFX uses, is tagged the AvaTrader and it gives clients the opportunity to participate in the market swiftly, employing the overly popular MetaTrader 4 platform. Traders can also get on the web based trading platform which is termed the AvaJava. Customers with real/live accounts on AvaFX can trade under Silver account (that has a minimum deposit of $100), while others can opt to trade on Gold account with a minimum of $1,000, while a couple more can decide on trading on Platinum accounts (where the minimum deposit is $10,000). Traders can try off their hands on AvaFx demo account, which provides the same features as seen on Ava’s live trading platform.

You’ll find a whole lot of advantages that is a resultant of being an AvaFX customer; the most exciting of them all is the unique auto-trading tools that are offered to clients as a component of the basic AvaFX trading platform. AvaFX offers three options in in a bid to make this possible: the AvaAutoTrader, which is seen as a leading solution for automated trading, ZuluTrader, is the second option and it provides tailored-made strategies for investors, it does also offer algorithmic solutions via AvaAutoTrader (this is usually done by big financial corporations and hedge funds in the currency market). As a matter of fact, there is another option that requires the trader design his trading system, via the usual API trading option.

However, leverage can be set to 400:1, but be rest assured that higher leverage means more risk. In addition to this, deposits on AvaFX can be done via NeTeller, Moneybookers, PayPal, and WebMoney. Customers on AvaFX can visibly request for the Ava Debit Card, which would help customers withdraw funds without the lengthy paper work and delay usually experienced during bank transfer.

Traders at AvaFX are aware that it is a subsidiary of a parent company that has a market capitalization of about $17 billion. This is not an everyday feat in the forex market, and portrays the company to be reliable and at the same time credible.

Advantages of AvaFx Forex Broker

1. AvaFX’s parent company is rated A+ by S&P.

2. You’ll find an amazing automated trading feature on AvaFX forex broker.

3. Traders would find the customized MetaTrader 4 trading platform very helpful.

4. Islamic banking is available on AvaFX forex broker.

Disadvantages of AvaFx Forex Broker

1. You won’t find support for Meta trader 4 software.

Conclusion

In a north shell, AvaFX owns a professional support team that is fluent in a lot of languages, and they are available on Ava’s helpline round-the-clock, in a bid to help clients and visitors as well resolve issues they may encounter.

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Alpari Forex Broker Review

Account Types	Standard: min 500 USD, Pro: min 10,000 USD
Regulated By	NFA,CFTC
Leverage	50:1 max
Mobile Trading	Yes
Hedging Facilities	No
FIFO Rules	Rules applied
Scalping allowed	Yes
Swap free accounts	Yes
PAMM	Yes
Payment Methods	Credit Card, PayPal, Wire Transfer, Check
Demo Size	Up to $500,000
Demo Duration	30 days
Platforms	Alpari Direct, Metatrader4 PRO, Metatrader 4, Alpari Direct Pro, Alpari JForex

As a leading forex brokerage firm that offers online trading services on the international currency market, Alpari Financial Services Ltd (Alpari FS), which was founded and has remain online since 1998 has become one of the world’s leading independent forex brokerage firms. The Alpari family is a group of companies that has a lot of international outreach and is well recognized for its innovative financial trading solutions. This has made the company earn a whole lot of trust from close to half a million customers in 150 countries and parades a monthly trading volume of around $200 billion.

The parent website is apari.com and this would open you up to its operations in nine cities around the world. There is Alpari U.S. with its office in New York and is licensed with CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) and is also a member of the NFA. United States customers can feel relaxed and safe as they register with Alpari U.S. Their European offices are littered in London, Frankfurt, Cyprus and Moscow. They are all registered in the various countries where you have their offices cited; Alpari UK is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK, Alpari (Deutschland) GmbH, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Alpari (UK), Alpari FS is authorized and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission, and Alpari (Russia) is regulated by the Federal Financial Markets Service.

Other offices are in Dubai (Alpari ME DMCC is a broker member on DGCX, licensed by the DMCC and authorized and regulated by the Securities & Commodities Authority of the UAE), Alpari (India) is a member of the NSE, MCX-SX and USE, there also Alpari (UK) Limited Shanghai Representative Office and represents Alpari (UK) across China and finally there’s Alpari JP, which is authorized and regulated by the KLFB under the supervision of the FSAJ, and is a member of the FFAJ.

The choice is yours, as you stand free to register on any of Alpari’s sister websites in the various countries/cities cited. In all of them, you’ll find the rich tradition of reliability and a safe investment ground where customers have access to the currency market and can full participate in varying financial instruments, including spot metals and CFDs.

One of the coolest features of trading with Alpari is the low spreads that they offer. Spreads can get as low as a single pip on some of the very active/popular pairs. Newbies would find Alpari’s educational resources very helpful, as well as analytical tools, news and rich data sources. Investors get quotes on stocks, commodities, and futures on Alpari’s MT5 trading platform.

Advantages of Alpari Forex Broker

1. Scalping is permitted on Alpari’s trading platform.

2. There is a minimum requirement of $100 for opening a live account, which is suitable for retail investors across board.

Disadvantages of Alpari Forex Broker

1. Customers at Alpari get a poor rating and this might be due to unavailability of their live chat. There’s also a problem of Alpari not having a toll-free telephone number and calling their support on phone could pile up some phone bills.

Conclusion

You’ll definitely enjoy, trading on Alpari’s MetaTrader 4 platform or it’s MetaTrader 5, which is excellent, productive and user-friendly. Money managers and institutional investors can use the Alpari Direct Pro, which gives them the power to execute mind blowing speed, precision in processing trade orders as well as its management.

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Printing currency seems to be once again the best solution

Less than 6 weeks to the fiscal cliff

The advance of a possible deflationary scenario has been confirmed by the producer and consumer prices data of October. The minutes of the Fed revealed this fear with the will of the central bank to implement new unconventional measures of monetary policy in 2013. No particular reactions anyway on EUR / USD which is more concerned about the Greek and Spanish situation.

The coming week is stingy with the macroeconomic data from the United States, but great attention has to be devoted to the political negotiations between Republicans and Democrats in relation to the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling.

Among the principal results: on November 19th the sale of houses, on November 21st the weekly requests of unemployment aids and finally November 21st the consumer confidence and leading indicator.

Euro-zone, elections in Catalonia and the German IFO

The data on the German business confidence turned out to be worse than expected last week, preventing one of the cross currency more related to its tendency, or EUR / JPY, to try the assault at 105.

Looking at the coming week, the main catalyst of the European market will be the Spanish political and the German confidence data.

In fact, on November 22nd it will be very interesting to see whether the confidence of the European entrepreneurs will be able to reverse a downward trend that, from January 2012 until today, has not allowed the composite PMI to rise above 50. On November 23rd, Germany will announce the third quarter GDP, but especially the IFO index, standard sentiment measure of the expectations of the German business men in the coming months.

The last data in October was 100, the lowest since February 2010. Finally, in Spain on November 25th, the regional elections in Catalonia will be held (Catalonia is one of the states with greater push for independence and its choices might influence the central government request for aid).

Eyes on the Bank of Japan meeting

After the bad data on the Japanese GDP contraction of 0.9% in the third quarter, the market will look very carefully at the meeting of the Bank of Japan on November 20th. This meeting will be crucial due to the new trade deficit context nearly consolidated (the October data will be released on November 21st) in Japan.

The announcement of new non-conventional measures of liquidity could fuel new force for NZD / JPY, as already occurred at the end of last week.

The uptrend positioning between 64.30 and 64.60 in place by June as well as the 200 days moving average have favored the rebound, but it is mainly the seasonality to enhance the positive view for NZD / JPY.

Over the past 20 years NZD / JPY has risen in 16 occasions in the last month of the year, a frequency of 80% that should not be overlooked.

Trade: long NZD / JPY

Trading : Long NZD / JPY

Inflation and interest rates: a crucial week for USD / ZAR

The coming week could be decisive to define the USD / ZAR trend. The inflation data (5.5% previously) will be published on November 21st while the announcement of any change in interest rates (currently at 5%) will be announced on November 22nd. The decreasing inflation might realize a cut in the interest rates encouraging a further uptrend of USD / ZAR. After breaking the 8.80, the minimum target of this movement is 9.10 and thus a return to area 8.80 will be exploited to open long positions.

Trade: long USD / ZAR at 8.80

Trading : Long USD / ZAR

TRADE OF LAST WEEK

Long EUR / HUF : the bad data concerning the Hungarian GDP favors the breaking of 284.40 and at the moment the minimum target of this upward movement are represented by 287.90 and 291.10

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