The winners of the U.S. elections: gold and dollar

President Obama and confirmation of the Federal Reserve monetary policy

The election of Obama as President of the United States (and the indirect confirmation of Bernanke as head of the Fed) has had the immediate reaction of a gold jump about $ 60 an ounce while the reaction of EUR USD has been contrasting.

We are expecting a week full of macroeconomic data in the United States. If the monthly change of producer prices (14/11), inflation (15/11) and industrial production (16/11) of October will not provide any major surprises, then the currency market will look very carefully at: the retail sales on Wednesday 11th expected to increase 0.6%, the anticipating manufacturing index Phily Fed, expected to decline from 5.7 for 3 points, but especially at the minutes of the recent FOMC of the Federal Reserve.

If the minutes should confirm a strong will by the Fed to consider the introduction of new non-conventional measures of liquidity to support the economy, the EUR USD bullish trend might regain its strength.

Euro Zone, the German Zew influence

In Europe, the Euro group will meet on Monday the 12th, while the next day there will be the Ecofin. The main focus will be concerning the decisions related to the Greek debt. On November the 15th the GDP data for the third quarter of France and Germany will be published. Anyway, the main Euro market mover will probably be on Tuesday the 13th, the date of the Zew index publication in Germany (this indicator measures the sentiment of the German institutional investors). Particularly, EUR JPY seems to be the most sensitive cross to the Zew index. In case the German trust will rise positively, then it is very likely that EUR JPY attempts (with a high chance of success) an assault at the key resistance 105. After this resistance, the reversal of the bearish trend that drives the cross since 2008 might be formalized.

Trade: Long EurJpy > 105

Trading : Long EUR / JPY > 105

UK

Very important week for the UK with the inflation data for October planned for November the 13th (in September 2.2%), unemployment (7.9% in September) and retail sales in October (+0.6% in September).

HUNGARY

The week has some significant data for the Eastern Europe economies. In the Czech Republic, on November the15th, the recession with decreasing expectations in the GDP of the third quarter 0.1% will be formalized, but above all, Hungary will get most of the attention. On the 13th, the October inflation will be published, on the 15th the GDP of the third quarter (second quarter -1.3%) and on the 16th the industrial production. The graph shows how the long term bullish trend of EUR HUF has been questioned in August and October, but without success.

The bullish trend line passes through 275 and drives the rise of EUR HUF since 2008, but at this same point there is also the 78.6% retracement of the rise in 2011 and the 50% of the rise in 2008-2011. EUR HUF reacted from the bottom in August reaching 289 before retracing back to 275.9.

Since 2008 EUR HUF works on a bottom cycle of 70 weeks that hit the low in August again. Therefore, due to the proximity of the key supports and the current position of the Roc at 40 weeks (that reminds of the one of other primary tops), a long strategy on EUR HUF might be not so hazardous.

Trade: Long EUR / HUF

Trading : Long EUR / HUF

BRICS (BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA)

Brazil: trade balance on the 12th, retail sales on the 13th
Russia: GDP of the third quarter on the 12th
India: inflation and industrial production on the 12th
South Africa: retail sales on the 14th

LAST WEEK TRADE

Long AUD USD: After the decision of the Australian central bank to keep interest rates unchanged, the Aussie fully respects the statistic indications provided last week, gaining over 100 pips and breaking upward the resistance 1.0418. The weekly closure is once more on the resistance 1.0418 but the target remains 1.05 first and then 1.0610.

Long GBP CHF: The upward trend of GBP CHF goes on, surpassing even 1.5100 due to the favorable bottom time cycle at 17 weeks, which should encourage the return into area 1.54 by the end of 2012.

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