U.S. and China Presidential elections are the main Forex market movers of the week

USA, THE OBAMA-ROMNEY CHALLENGE

Each U.S. macroeconomic data will not be so important during the week concerning the election of the U.S. president No. 57 on Tuesday the 6th. Beyond the Romney – Obama challenge there are some relevant data anyway : the non-manufacturing ISM scheduled on November the 5th because of its importance anticipating trends in the U.S. economic cycle, the weekly data related to the new unemployment benefits on November the 8th, and the consumer confidence prepared by the University of Michigan scheduled on November the 9th.

EURO, DRAGHI’S DECISIONS

One of the most important event to be underlined in Europe this week, is the issue of economic growth forecasts by the European Commission on November the 7th, but most of all the ECB meeting scheduled for November the 8th. Draghi should not announce any manoeuvre on the rates (currently 0.75%) while most interest is around the situation in Greece and the anti-spreads shield.

UK, NEW QUANTITATIVE MEASUREMENTS ON THE HORIZON

The key event of the week is the Bank of England meeting scheduled for November the 8th. If the interest rates are expected to remain stable at 0.50%, the market is uncertain about the chance of starting new monetary policy measures after the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan ones. The recent data on the GDP for the third quarter of the year (up 1%), but above all the positive news coming from the growing consumer credit and positive retail sales, are making the new liquidity measures quite unlikely.

TRADING : LONG GBP / CHF

Starting from the bottom of last August 2011, GBP / CHF is making a primary top every 17 weeks, and in the last two weeks, this pattern has been confirmed again. The cyclic appointment characterized by a low at 1.4827 first, and then a bullish engulfing pattern on weekly scale are strengthening the hypothetical bullish movement in the coming weeks. Since every smallest cycle has always pushed GBP / CHF over the last primary top, the bullish break at 1.5487 should only be a matter of days.

Trading : Long GBP / CHF

AUSTRALIA, LIKELY NEW INTEREST RATES CUTS

The Australian central bank is expected to announce on November the 6th a cut of the official interest rate to 3%. This event, from a technical point of view, is not so irrelevant for AUD / USD. In fact Aussie still tends to move with extreme volatility in the 8 trading days after the RBA decision on the rates. Looking at the last 6 events, the movements were between 164 and 400 pips. Anyway, after the bullish / bearish trend, there has been a break of an important static or dynamic resistance / support. At the moment, these levels are to be found in 1.0413 as a resistance and 1.0304 as a support.

TRADE : LONG / SHORT AUD / USD

Trade : Long / Short AUD / USD

BRICS (BRAZIL, RUSSIA, INDIA, CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA) – CHINA ELECTS ITS NEW POLICY GUIDE

Brazil: waiting for a data concerning the October inflation on November the 7th Russia: October inflation on November the 7th China: On November the 8th there will be a political event to attract the attention. In fact, on this day the 18th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will appoint new members of the next Politburo Standing Committee. The current President Hu Jintao and the Premier Wen Jiabao are among the prominent personalities that will be replaced. All the forecasts indicate Xi Jinping to be the future guide of the country. Also to be underlined, the data concerning the October industrial production, retail sales and most of all, the inflation (1.9% in the month of September).

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